The last time these two teams met, in early October, the Patriots overcame a key 4th down drop by Derrick Mason in the waning minutes of the game to hold onto a 27-21 win. Since then, much has changed for both teams.

The Ravens have been severely depleted in their secondary having lost most of their starting CBs, while the Patriots, relatively unscathed outside of a few injuries, lost one of their most valuable assets in WR Wes Welker in their regular season finale.

On to the analysis of this Wild Card match-up:

When the Patriots are on offense, look for them to attack Baltimore through the air. The one area which the Ravens are particularly strong is against the run; they’re No. 5 in the league. And New England doesn’t possess the type of power running game which can pick up tough yards against this front seven.

So once again Tom Brady will set the tone for this offense.

The Welker injury is devastating but they’ve still got plenty of weapons on the outside to get the job done. To compensate for the loss to the underneath game, rookie Julian Edelman will be used primarily on crossing patterns and 3rd downs.  Brady will also involve WR Sam Aiken and his TEs (Chris Baker, Ben Watson).

But the receiving corps will need Randy Moss to play like the star he’s been over the past 10 years to take pressure off the other guys. Baltimore doesn’t possess anyone in the secondary that can stay with him and we expect at least one long TD on Sunday.

Once they get the passing game going, look for New England to mix in the run with Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk on 3rd downs.

When the Ravens have the ball, expect a heavy dose of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Joe Flacco’s play has really tailed off since his hot start to the season and Baltimore will want to keep the fate of the game out of his hands. But Belichick won’t; expect Vince Wolfork to be back and you’ll see New England bring an extra man in the box to ensure the ground game doesn’t get going.

When the Ravens are put into obvious passing situations, New England, devoid of any real pass rushing threats, will have to bring extra people to rattle Flacco and throw off his rhythm.

The one thing they’ll need to keep an eye on is Ray Rice out of the backfield because he’s extremely dangerous on screen passes and will be Baltimore’s biggest receiving threat on Sunday.

As for the skill players, Mason’s slowed down (huge drops vs. Pittsburgh) and there’s no other receiving threat, outside of TE Todd Heap in the red zone, to worry about.

When the clock hits 0:00, expect New England to pull out a 24-14 win. They’re currently only favored by a 3 point spread and that’s too low.

The Patriots are certainly not the world beaters they were for the better part of this decade, but the Ravens have been very inconsistent down the stretch and were fortunate to overcome the pathetic Raiders in Week 17 in a game they had to have.

Much of those struggles can be attributed to Flacco’s up and down play, and you can bet Belichick will have something up his sleeve to keep the 2nd year QB from regaining his early season form.

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