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The point spread is also only a FG opposed to the 12-point line the Pats were favored by in Arizona.
When the Giants have the ball, expect them to attack with the pass to set up the run. The Patriots pass D is poor and often times they ask WR Julian Edelman to play in the slot. That’s a tall order considering he’ll be lining up against Victor Cruz much of the evening.
The Giants other receivers (Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham) also have a decided advantage over the DBs that will be covering them.
The key for the Patriots will be how well they disguise their coverages and how effective DT Vince Wilfork and the front four pressure Eli. If they can, it will limit some of the Giants effectiveness, especially down the field, but the Giants offensive line has actually pass blocked well over the 2nd half of the season, the NFC Championship game excluded. But that was against an excellent Niners D on a sloppy field; not the 31st ranked Pats D in a dome.
An X factor in this game will be RB Ahmad Bradshaw. He missed the Week 9 contest and will be difficult for the Pats to contain as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.
When the Patriots have the ball, look for New England to throw a wrinkle at the Giants and come out running the ball out of the spread offense. They don’t want to become too one dimensional because that plays right into the Giants main strength, which is getting after the QB.
So, they’ll likely employ a quick passing game to go with the run and pick their spots when to open it up.
But a lot will depend on Brady’s ability to keep the Giants D off balance. If he is unable to do this, it could be a long evening for him.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis could be an effective runner as well as the Giants mostly use the Nickel D vs high powered passing offenses.
The X Factors will be their TEs, and namely, Rob Gronkowski. He’s coming off a bad ankle injury and it’s unlikely that he’ll be more than 60-70% healthy. If he becomes a non-factor, it will allow New York to play one man on him rather than two, and they’ll then shift their attention to Aaron Hernandez, the other talented TE.
When it’s all said and done, look for the Giants to win their 2nd Super Bowl in five years.
Both coaches are excellent at game planning and preparing their teams, but the Giants have the better and deeper team.
The Patriots lack of a deep threat coupled with the Giants ferocious pass rush also means that New England will be forced to rely on long drives to put points on the board, which will not be so easy to do. Whereas the Giants offense is a threat to strike at any time.
New York Giants 31 – New England Patriots 21
