Image by Getty Images via @daylife
Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots – While everyone is firmly on the Pats bandwagon after last Saturday’s 45-10 romp, people are forgetting one thing: New England did not beat a team with a winning record the entire season, last Saturday included.
So while this is at home and the TE duo is hotter than ever, it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that the Patriots will win.
In fact, we think if Baltimore plays its game they’ll be the team that advances from the AFC.
When the Ravens have the ball, look for them to remain committed to the run to set up the pass. The Patriots porous secondary makes the thought of throwing the ball very attractive, but Joe Flacco is not a QB that can consistently beat a team without a running game.
So keeping Ray Rice involved early and often will be the key.
And if he finds success and can average 4 yards per attempt, it’ll take the necessary pressure off of Flacco and open up play action and down the field opportunities.
When the Patriots have the ball, look for Brady to continue to spread the ball around and only mix in the run when he has the Ravens D on its heels. Baltimore is usually very stout against the run and New England doesn’t really have a running game to speak of.
The Ravens DB’s will focus on the Patriots TE’s and play man to man on the outside, which could translate into a big day by Wes Welker.
However, look for Suggs and Co. to come after Brady hard to disrupt the Patriots timing and rhythm.
That is the only way you can stop this offense.
When it’s all said and done, expect a very close outcome, but one which has Baltimore coming out on top, making them a great play against the point spread and a solid money line bet. The Patriots are not a physical team while the Ravens are, and that usually is the difference when playing in late January.
Baltimore 24-20.
NFC Read More
