1. Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Denver Broncos
With a win on Sunday, the Colts will wrap up home field advantage in the AFC. The Broncos, who are still fighting for a Wild Card, have beaten the Giants and Chiefs in consecutive weeks but will find that the Colts are a different beast.
Look for Peyton Manning to have success through the air and force Denver into a shootout, which is not their style of play. Defensively, Freeney and Co. will shut down Kyle Orton en route to an easy win in Week 14.
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2. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Although Minnesota is a tough place to play, it’s tough to bet against the Bengals in a big game situation this year. They’ve won every single one they’ve played in. And still vying for the No. 2 seed in the conference, expect Cincinnati to pull out a close victory on the road behind the legs of Cedric Benson and arm of Carson Palmer. The loss of MLB EJ Henderson to the Vikings’ defense will be difficult to overcome.
3. New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Patriots are finally back to a place they can win: home. They’re 6-0 in New England and just 1-5 on the road. The Panthers will likely have to go with Matt Moore at QB and even the beleaguered Patriots defense can handle this assignment. Offensively, look for Brady and Co. to put between 25 to 30 on the board and wear the Panthers down late.
4. Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are on a roll right now but have mostly feasted off a soft schedule during their seven game winning streak. And while the Cowboys certainly have issues of their own – can’t win in December, this is a must-win game for them. Their ability to run the ball will end up being the deciding factor in the game.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1) vs. New York Giants
The Giants potentially saved their season with their win over Dallas in Week 13. And while they did a lot of good things in that game, they’ve still got a number of issues rushing the passer and getting off the field on 3rd down. Andy Reid always has his teams prepared against New York and will attack the Giants porous pass defense with the Eagles talented young pass catchers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek).
Also, the +1 point spread suggests that the odds makers think Philly will win; home teams are usually alloted a 3 point spread if the book makers think the game is even.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers hopes for the post season will come to an end on Monday Night when the Cards head out to San Francisco. Kurt Warner is playing extremely well and Fitzgerald and Boldin will be too much for the Niners secondary. Defensively, the Cards will take Frank Gore out of the game and force Alex Smith to beat them.
Money Line
Miami Dolphins (+120) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are the most unimpressive 7-5 team in the NFL. Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game, they don’t do anything particularly well; the passing game is inconsistent and the defense is soft against both the run and pass.
The Dolphins are by no means a powerhouse, but they’ve won three of their last four (including a 22-21 win over the Patriots on Sunday) to move to .500. Chad Henne is slowly getting better and the improvement to the offensive side of the ball reflects his growth as a QB.
Offensively, Miami will focus on the running game with Ricky Williams to set-up the pass. Look for Henne to then execute a safe passing attack designed to keep the clock/chains moving and wear Jacksonville down. Miami will score at least 21.
Defensively, Miami will focus its efforts on stopping the run, which it’s quite good at. They’ll force David Garrard to beat them and he’ll struggle against an improving secondary.
When clock hits 0:00, Miami will win 21-17 to move even with the Jags at 7-6.
