With three games scheduled for Thanksgiving, here’s our Week 12 picks.
Best Bets
1. Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins have won five of their last seven to jump back into the AFC Wild Card race. And this week, they face a Bills team that’s been forced to call up practice squad players just to field an offensive line.
The Dolphins front seven will have their way with the Bills offense all afternoon and put Ryan Fitzpatrick on his back as well as force turnovers. Offensively, look for Ricky Williams to be the centerpiece of the offensive attack and lead Miami to an easy victory.
Next In Line
2. New England Patriots (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints
See Money Line Analysis
3. Cincinnati Bengals (-14) vs. Cleveland Browns
This would normally be lot of points to be giving in a matchup between division rivals. But the Bengals are extremely disappointed about blowing a golden opportunity last week to take a commanding lead in the AFC North and the Browns are the front runner for the 1st pick in the NFL draft. Look for the Bengals offense to impose its will on a soft Browns defense and for the defense to make Brady Quinn’s life miserable all afternoon.
4. Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs. Chicago Bears
The Vikings are on a roll at 9-1 and Brett Favre is playing as well as he ever has. Adrian Peterson always feasts on the Bears defense and this unit is not nearly as good as they were in years’ past. Defensively, expect Jared Allen and Co. to get after Cutler and force the erratic QB in mistakes. They’ll also sack him a handful of times.
Others We Like
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Jaguars have won three in a row including a 24-22 win over the Jets in the Meadowlands. This win was important because they had played horribly on the road up until that point. The Niners on the other hand have lost five of their last six and are heading in the wrong direction fast. Look for The Jags to rely heavily on MJD and then take their chances to Mike Sims-Walker against a depleted 49ers secondary. Defensively, they’ll focus on stopping Frank Gore and put the game in Alex Smith’s hands.
Arizona Cardinals (Pick) vs. Tennessee Titans
Provided that Kurt Warner is healthy, the Cardinals will make it six for six on the road. The Titans weakness defensively is against the pass and Warner and Co. (Fitzgerald, Boldin) will exploit this weakness. Defensively, the Cardinals will stack the line of scrimmage to limit Chris Johnson’s effectiveness and force Vince Young to beat them, which he won’t be able to do.
Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders aren’t a good team as is. But they’re exceptionally bad on the road. Travelling to Dallas on a short week, look for Romo and Co. to have their way against the Raiders defense. Defensively, DT Jay Ratliff, DE/LB DeMarcus Ware and the rest of the Cowboys front seven will get after QB Gradkowski and force a few costly turnovers. This one should be a blowout.
Money Line
New England Patriots (+120) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints perfect season comes to an end on Monday Night. New Orleans is currently 10-0 and holds the top seed in the NFC. But they have a plethora of problems on defense, most notably in the secondary, and this is where the Pats will attack all night long.
Brady’s finally back to being the Tom Brady of old and the Patriots passing game is working on all cylinders. Wes Welker is the perfect underneath receiver to pick third downs and move the chains and Randy Moss has four TDs in the past three games, two over 60 yards. And they’re finally getting some value out of Laurence Maroney who will have a solid evening against the Saints porous run defense.
The Saints, equally balanced on offense, actually play into one of the Patriots strengths. New England brings the No. 6 ranked pass defense into this contest and this will be the deciding factor in the game. RB Pierre Thomas and Co. should do well on the ground but Bill Belichick will put together a scheme to keep everything in front of the secondary, thus taking away one of the Saints most dangerous weapons: the deep pass.
When all is said and done, look for New England to move to 8-3 and for New Orleans to move into a tie for the NFC’s top seed with the Minnesota Vikings.
