Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were both thrown into the fire from Day One and achieved levels of success rarely seen by rookie QBs.
And they did it different ways.
Flacco was able to follow a script which we’ve seen before; like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, he was able to ride a dominant defense and solid running game to the AFC Championship Game.
Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron put together a perfect scheme which relied heavily on the run and featured a short, safe passing game. The deep ball was occasionally mixed in to stretch the field and keep defense’s honest.
His goal was to win the time of possession battle and limit the mistakes of his young QB. And the result was an 11-win season.
Ryan’s performance on the other hand was unlike any we’ve seen from a rookie with the exception of Dan Marino’s 1983 campaign.
And it was probably better in that he inherited as dysfunctional a franchise as one could imagine; they were just a year removed from the Michael Vick dog fighting debacle and the abandonment of ship by then head coach, Bobby Petrino.
Marino inherited a Super Bowl team.
The amazing thing about Ryan’s success is that he wasn’t blessed with a great defense—it was above average at best. And while he did have a stellar running game (acquisition of RB Michael Turner from San Diego) to fall back on, his maturity was such that the Falcons were not forced to scale back the offensive game plan for him.
In fact, as the season progressed, they even opened it up.
Coach’s rarely do this because the position is so cerebral; there’s just so much to know that they’d rather have their young QB focusing on executing the plan than over thinking (see Ryan Leaf).
So since last year’s success created a bull market for QBs in 2009—and raised the bar early on—what can we expect from the top two QBs in this rookie class?
Matt Stafford
The Lions are not paying him $41.7 million guaranteed to sit on the bench. And coming off an 0-16 campaign, there’s going to be a lot of pressure to put him in there from Day One.
But they better be careful because while they can’t lose anymore from a game’s standpoint than they did in 2008, they can lose something much more valuable: his confidence.
And we’ve seen how far reaching—and damaging—the loss of confidence can be with a top pick. In 2002, after being sacked an NFL record 76 times as a rookie, David Carr’s eyes went from where they were supposed to be—down the field and reading the defense—to the pass rush.
Now he’s nothing more than a backup.
So when measuring the variables that might lead to success for a rookie QB, either a strong running game or solid defense, or better yet both, Stafford has neither.
Outside of superstar receiver Calvin Johnson, Detroit has a few solid players at the skill positions surrounding him, but the offensive line and defense are atrocious.
Verdict: The Lions would be wise to get him some experience later on in the season but there’s no reason to play him until at least Week Nine or 10. Three to four wins is this team’s ceiling.
Mark Sanchez
Sanchez actually landed in a much better situation to succeed from Day One. The Jets possess a strong defense, a solid running game, and a big offensive line.
And while they’re lacking some at the receiver position, Rex Ryan will follow the same blueprint with Sanchez as they did in Baltimore last year. You’ll see them run the football heavily with RB Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, and mix in short, safe, manageable passes.
And with an aggressive, attacking defense, forcing turnovers and keeping games close, he’ll have a chance to lead them to 7-9 wins.
In any other division, I’d say the potential was there for more, but there’s at least four losses sitting right there in the AFC East: two to the Patriots, one to the Dolphins, and for whatever reason, the Bills always steal a game vs. Gang Green.
Verdict: With the lack of talent at the QB position currently on the roster, and all other elements in place for Sanchez to succeed, look for him to have his number called from Day One.
And to answer our initial question of whether the rookie QBs in 2009 will have the same impact as 2008?
The answer is a resounding no.
MIKE HUNT
July 9th, 2009 at 05:23
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NO your right they will not have the same season they will have a better season than 08's QB's LIONS and JETT's will both be in the playoffs
MIKE HUNT
July 9th, 2009 at 09:23
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NO your right they will not have the same season they will have a better season than 08's QB's LIONS and JETT's will both be in the playoffs