When the 9-8 San Diego Chargers head into Pittsburgh to take on the 12-4 Steelers, a trip to the AFC Championship will be on the line.
Five weeks ago you would’ve found a lot of takers if you were betting that San Diego would be in this situation; they were 4-8, in the midst of a three game losing streak, and three games behind the Denver Broncos.
The Steelers on the other hand, have been on a pretty good roll for the better part of the season, and wrapped up their second straight AFC North title after beating the Ravens in Week 15.
This is the second time these teams have played this season with the Steelers winning 11-10 in their November meeting.
Here’s how we see this game unfolding.
When the Chargers have the football, they’re going to have to use the passing game to set-up the run. For one, Tomlinson is not expected to play; he has a torn groin tendon that limited him to just five carries vs. the Colts. And although it remains to be seen just how effective he would’ve been against this defense, he was coming on towards the end of the season before sustaining his groin injury against Denver.
Second, for as spectacular as RB Darren Sproles was last week in their win vs. Indy, these are the Steelers, and running on them is extremely difficult. In fact, they were the top ranked defense in the NFL against the run in 2008.
So in order for the Chargers to use Sproles effectively and get the most out of the little man, they’re going to have to attack Pittsburgh’s defense down the middle – TE Antonio Gates in particular – and then use a quicker passing game to the wideouts to keep the chains moving.
But this will not be easy; the Steelers pressure oriented defense, led by LB James Harrison, blitz on nearly every down, and usually with great effectiveness, so having the time to set-up routes and hit on timing patterns is usually few and far between.
However, if this Chargers can do this with any success, it will allow them to use Sproles on screen passes and draw plays, hopefully creating opportunities to put him in space and allow him to do the rest with his legs.
When the Steelers have the football, look for them to follow the same plan as the Chargers: pass to set up the run. And the reason for this is the revamped Chargers’ defense, led by DC Ron Rivera.
His schemes are more attacking than his predecessor, Ted Cottrell, and this is helping his defense tremendously; when the QB has less time to throw, his receivers have less time to get separation from the DBs, and the main issue for the Chargers earlier in the season was its inability to stop the passing game.
So look for Pittsburgh to utilize a quick passing game—targeting WR Ward and TE Miller—to go with its running game. The goal of this will be to generate first downs and keep the time of possession in their favor, so they can pick and choose their spots for when to use RBs Willie Parker and Mwelde Moore.
And if this becomes a reality on Sunday, and they are able to move the chains, then in the second half, when the Chargers’ defense does begins to tire, look for Roethlisberger to take his shots down the field and locate WR Holmes or Washington for a long one.
All things considered, when the clock hits 0:00, we like the Steelers to move on by the closest of margins—17-13 or 14-10. The defenses will play major roles in deciding the outcome of this game, and we like Pittsburgh’s to create a little more havoc in the end than San Diego’s.
So the Steelers will move to the AFC Championship Game, while the Chargers, who weren’t even expected to be here after Week 13, will head home early and have all off season to figure out how to get things going earlier in 2009.
