In Week Six, we had our first sub .500 week of the year vs. the point spread, but we’re set to get back on track this week. Here’s our Week Seven edition of best bets.
Best Bets
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Steelers are coming into this at 4-2 and riding a three game winning streak. S Troy Polamalu is also back in the mix and his presence positively impacts the Steelers defense more than anyone else. The Vikings are playing well too, sitting at 6-0, but this is away from the dome. Expect Peterson to find little running room against the Steelers front and on the Hines Field Turf and for Roethlisberger to pick apart the Vikings secondary.
Next In Line
2. Indianapolis Colts (-13.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Colts are well rested and S Bob Sanders looks like he’ll make his first appearance of the season on Sunday. Offensively, they were already hitting on all cylinders. Expect Peyton Manning and Co. to put up well over 30 in Week Seven and limit the lowly Rams to fewer than 14.
3. Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are coming off an emotional win in which they took the New York Giants apart. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and you can bet they’re not going to follow the Giants blueprint for stopping Drew Brees; they’ll blitz at least half of the time and try and pressure the QB. Offensively, in an attempt to not get lured into a shootout, they’ll rely heavily on the run and shorten the game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (+5) vs. San Diego Chargers
See Money Line Analysis
Others We Like
New England Patriots (-15.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots are coming off a 59 point win and you know Bill Belichick won’t be hesitant to run up the score in front of the London crowd. The Buccaneers are reeling and still 0 for the season (0-6). Things might get better at some point, but don’t look for improvement this week. Brady and Co. big in the UK.
Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns
Aside from a porous offensive line, the Packers are improving each and every week – especially on defense. The Browns won’t be much of a test on Sunday and we like Rodgers to lead this team to at least a 10 point victory.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are in a tail spin and the upper management issues – removing HC Jim Zorn from play calling duties – will certainly affect the team’s mindset come Monday Night, even against their division rivals. Look for the Eagles to bounce back from their horrific loss to the Raiders and dominate in DC.
Money Line
Kansas City Chiefs (+190) vs. San Diego Chargers
When you look at the Chargers roster, and see such a talented bunch, going with the 1-5 Chiefs seems irrational. However, when you see how this team responds to coach Norv Turner, the decision doesn’t look so bad.
The Chiefs are also playing better as a team and have historically been tough on San Diego in Kansas City.
Offensively, look for the Chiefs to pound the ball with Larry Johnson. LJ hasn’t been too effective thus far but the Chargers, minus DT Jamal Williams, have a gaping hole in the interior of its defense. Once the running game gets going, look for Cassel to take to the air and locate WR Dwayne Bowe and Co. The Chargers lack of a pass rush will open up opportunities for the passing game.
Defensively, the Chiefs will only have to worry about the Chargers passing game, which is extremely effective when Rivers has time (to throw). From a running standpoint, Tomlinson has clearly lost a step and is no longer the threat he once was, and this will allow the Chiefs to keep extra people back to contend with the air attack. And once the Chargers become one dimensional, Kansas City should be able to get to Rivers on a few occasions.
The Chargers will be able to move the ball through the air but it won’t be enough. Expect a sloppy game out of both teams but one in which the home team will ultimately win.
2009 Record Against The Point Spread
Overall 63%
Best Bets 2-4
Next In Line 14-4
Others We Like 9-9
Money Line 5-1
