1. Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The 3-0 Chiefs will find the prospect of playing in Indianapolis a very different beast than their earlier road game in Cleveland.
Peyton Manning and Co. were embarrassed in Jacksonville and will light up the Chiefs D on Sunday. On the other side of the ball, although the Colts are down to back-up Safeties, expect DE Dwight Freeney and Co. to provide enough pressure off the edge to force QB Matt Cassel into costly mistakes.
This is the best football bet of the weekend.
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2. Minnesota Vikings (+4) vs. New York Jets – Both teams will have very different looks than a week ago. The Jets are finally healthy (CB Darrelle Revis, LB Calvin Pace) and getting WR Santonio Holmes back into the mix, and Minnesota acquired WR Randy Moss on Wednesday.
The presence of Moss will open up the entire Vikings offense – especially for RB Adrian Peterson – and Brett Favre will have success in the air on Monday. Defensively, although QB Mark Sanchez has been on fire of late, the Vikings D is well rested and will bring their A game this week. Look for a final score decided by no more than a FG.
3. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans – The Cowboys are also well rested after the bye and its offense will pick apart a Titans D which was torched by Kyle Orton in Week 4. Look for Tony Romo and Co. to put 28 points on the board.
On defense, they’ll make stopping RB Chris Johnson their No. 1 priority and QB Vince Young will be unable to do much through the air. Look for a pretty decisive 28-14 win by the Cowboys.
4. New York Giants (+3) vs. Houston Texans – See Money Line Bet.
Rounding Out the List
Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The only positive for the Bengals in their disappointing loss to the Browns was the offense found some life. We expect that to carry over and for DC Mike Zimmer to dial up a defensive game plan which confuses and forces QB Josh Freeman into mistakes. Cincinnati should win this pretty handily.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos have been a feisty team the past two weeks and are overachieving for HC Josh McDaniels, but keeping things close in Baltimore is going to be a tall order. The Ravens offense brings a lot of confidence into this one after their last second win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and defensively they’re especially physical when playing at home. Look for a 24-10 final score on Sunday.
Detroit Lions (-3) vs. St. Louis Rams – While the Rams certainly have a lot to feel good about after winning two in a row at home, this week they’re on the road and facing a Lions team poised to win. Detroit’s been competitive in every game this season and will beat the Rams by a TD in Week 5. Look for a big day from RB Jahvid Best and WR Calvin Johnson and defensively we expect the Lions to force a few turnovers against impressive rookie QB Sam Bradford.
Money Line Bet
New York Giants (+130) vs. Houston Texans
The Giants head into Houston coming off an overwhelming defensive performance against the Bears on Sunday. In that contest they notched 10 sacks and would’ve pitched a shutout if not for a fumble by RB Brandon Jacobs in their territory. The Texans are off to an excellent start at 3-1 and back at home for this one.
We like the Giants in a close one. Offensively, look for Eli Manning and Co. to attack through the air as the Texans pass D is ranked last in the league. Success in the passing game will open up running room for RB Ahmad Bradshaw which will help keep the Texans offense on the sidelines. Defensively, the Giants will focus their efforts on stopping RB Arian Foster and the running game, which is something they’ve done well thus far in 2010. This will place the Texans in unfavorable passing situations (eg 3rd and long) and allow the Giants front four to affect the passing game’s rhythm and get to QB Matt Schaub.
As the game draws to a close, expect New York, still riding high off Sunday’s win, to pull out the 21-17 win on the road.
