The Super Bowl is finally upon us.
It features the two top seeds from both conferences who each started out the season 13-0.
The Colts are here after two commanding post season victories over the Ravens and Jets. The impressive part about the AFC Championship Game is that after going down 17-6, Manning rallied his troops to outscore New York 24-0 over the final 32 minutes of the game.
The Saints on the other hand are fortunate to be in this position. After an overwhelming 45-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional Round, it took five turnovers, one being an infamous interception by Brett Favre at the end of regulation, before the Saints kicked the GW FG in OT to advance to the Super Bowl.
Since then, the only major news leading up to the game – from either team – is the status of DE Dwight Freeney. Mixed reports are coming out of the Colts camp but it appears unlikely that he’ll be able to play in this game due to a torn ligament in his ankle… and if he can, he’ll be far below 100%.
Onto our analysis of the Super Bowl:
When the Colts have the ball, they’ll use the same formula they’ve used all season and keep the game in Manning’s hands throughout. While the Saints possess above average CB play, their defensive front’s ability to pressure the QB is usually dependent upon playing with a lead, something we don’t expect here, so look for Manning to have time to deliver the ball.
Reggie Wayne won’t have much trouble making his presence felt because the Siants don’t possess a CB of Darrelle Revis’s caliber. In fact, we like all of the skill players, from WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, to TE Dallas Clark, to have a great deal of success against this secondary.
DC Gregg Williams will most likely employ a defense designed to keep everything in front of it. He did this against the Vikings. But Peyton Manning will recognize this early and methodically pick apart the secondary en route to long drives which end in TDs.
And when Williams decides to bring the blitz, Manning is one of the – if not the – best in the league at recognizing it and will make New Orleans pay.
Once the passing game gets going, expect RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to see their share of touches. It’ll be primarily on stretch runs and draws but it’ll do just enough to keep New Orleans off balance so Peyton can execute play action passes.
When the Saints have the ball, Brees will be dealing. Like Manning, he’s extremely efficient and accurate when given time to pass. And if Freeney isn’t able to go, the Saints will then shift help over to DE Robert Mathis’s side of the field and Brees will have a nice pocket to locate the open receiver.
Look for WR Marques Colston to play a big role, as well as Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem, and any one of them could get behind the Colts secondary like Braylon Edwards did in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints will be able to use the play action effectively because RB Pierre Thomas should find a lot of success running against the Colts smaller D.
For the intermediate passing game, both TEs – Jeremy Shockey and Dave Thomas – will be used heavily throughout.
Out of the backfield, look for Pierre Thomas to be the primary ball handler.
As to Reggie Bush, he’ll have success both as a running back and receiver but we like him to make his presence felt more as a receiver in this one.
One thing to remember about this game is both teams are dome teams, and both rely heavily on their team speed. The Super Bowl is set to be played on the grass, so expect to see a different speed of the game than we’re used to seeing from them.
When Super Bowl XLIV is in the books, provided DE Dwight Freeney doesn’t play, look for the Saints, a 6 point underdog, to pull out the upset 31-28. (If Freeney can play and is effective, then we’ll side with the Colts by a TD, but all reports suggest he won’t be).
This will be a very even game offensively and defense is where it will be won.
Freeney’s loss will tip the scales in the Saints favor.
