It took only three disappointing seasons to see the top pick in the 2007 Draft kicked to the curb and thus ZERO return for Oakland on what will end up a $39 million investment.

From the get go however, this pick was bound to fail.

Lane Kiffin, then head coach of the Raiders, desperately wanted WR Calvin Johnson but was overruled by Al Davis and Co., who still believe QBs with arms strong enough to throw the ball 70 yards and WRs with sub 4.2 speed are the way to win in this league.

But above this, it was the Raiders lack of due diligence on Russell which ended up doing them in.

There’s two qualities which usually separate the average players from the very good/great: work ethic and motivation.

And when you’re picking at the top of the draft, you can ill-afford to land an average player.

Numerous reports prior to the 2007 Draft suggested that Russell displayed poor work ethic while at LSU.

As to motivation, while it’s questionable whether he had any in the first place, it’s hard to see where the Raiders figured it was going to come from considering the Draft’s top pick is set for life on his first contract.

There are some positions where talent alone can get you by; QB is not one of them.

It takes countless hours of classroom study and practice just to be ready to compete on Sunday’s, and when you mix god given talent on top of that, that is usually what separates the best from the rest.

Russell failed miserably on the first two, so it’s easy to see why the third, which he possessed, did little for him on the field.

In the end, the Raiders could’ve had their choice of WR Calvin Johnson, RB Adrian Peterson or LT Joe Thomas, and that in itself is a tough pill to swallow, but if you’re a Raiders fan and looking for a positive sign out of this mess, at least the organization knew when to cut its losses.

Got to start somewhere.

The Jags made a monumental mistake at pick No. 10,  regardless of how the rest of their draft turns out,  and it could put them back for a while.

I’m not saying that their top pick, DT Tyson Alualu, won’t develop into a good player, he might.

But there’s a right way to draft, and a wrong way, and the Jags chose the latter.

You NEVER draft for need if the player at your pick isn’t worthy of the selection. You either trade back, acquire more picks and then select your guy at the appropriate slot, or take the best player available.

And let’s face it, odds are if you’re drafting in the top 10, you have more than one pressing need.

Jacksonville chose neither of the above and need only look to recent history to see how things turned out for another team that followed this path.

The 2009 Oakland Raiders decided to reach for WR Darrius Heyward-Bey at pick No. 7, rather than trading down, acquiring more draft choices, and then selecting him at a slot more in line with his value, and for the $23.5M in guaranteed money they threw his way, got 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1TD in year one.

He went three slots ahead of the Draft’s top rated receiver, WR Michael Crabtree , who finished with 48 receptions, for 625 yards and 2 TDs.

But back to Jacksonville.

Being without a 2nd round pick, the front office probably panicked, and felt it could not afford to pass on a need, but in the process, they reached for a DT that many experts had pegged for a late 1st round pick, and now must pay him top 10 money.

If you look around the league, you’ll notice that the teams that consistently make post season appearances all draft well, and aren’t afraid to move around in the 1st round – back, forward, or out of it  (see Baltimore).

The ability to draft well is crucial because teams aren’t built through Free Agency, they’re built through the NFL Draft.

The former can fill in the missing pieces, but the core comes via the draft, and the teams that don’t do it well, are the ones that find themselves at home come Playoff time.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give to you the 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Seahawks wisely upgraded a few key positions (OT Russell Okung, S Earl Thomas and WR Golden Tate) and provided they all develop, could be solid additions to this team for year’s to come. Trading late round picks for RB LenDale White and RB Leon Washington were both solid moves and if Washington is healthy, look for him to provide some  big plays out of the backfield.

Baltimore Ravens

Ozzie Newsome and Co. always draft well and it’s why they’ve been perennial Playoff participants over the last decade. Trading out of round one to secure DT Terrence Cody and LB Sergio Kindle in round two were both smart moves. The defense, a top unit in 2008, had a slight drop off due to injuries in 2009, and this infusion of youth should get them back to top form in 2010. Taking two TEs in rounds three and four should provide depth – and talent – to the passing game.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers needed to get better along the offensive line and grabbed two big bodies in round one: LT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Lupati. Keeping Alex Smith off his back and providing Frank Gore with more running room was the top priority in this Draft and they’ve addressed that. They also found S Taylor Mays in round two and he’ll have a chip on his shoulder after being passed over by his college coach (Carroll) in round one.

New York Giants

The Giants felt they needed to get younger and more physical on defense and this is exactly what they did. Their top four picks were on the defensive side of the ball and their top pick, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, could end up a double digit sack man and Pro Bowl player for years to come.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles always draft well and continuously find guys who fit their system. They traded up to land DE Brandon Graham and nabbed a Safety with their Donovan McNabb pick in round two. One area where Philly needed help was in the back seven and off the edge and they’ve upgraded these areas in the Draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs had gaping holes in the interior of its defense last year and focused solely on this area at the top of the NFL Draft. DTs Gerald McCoy and Brian Price provide youth and talent in the middle and they then focused on a LB later in round three. The Bucs have a long way to go, but this is certainly a solid start.

Cincinnati Bengals

Towards the end of last season, after WR Chris Henry went on IR, the Bengals passing game, and in particular, deep passing game, became non-existent. Teams knew if you shut down Ochocinco, there was little danger from the Bengals’ skill players. So, in addition to their off-season of FA Antonio Bryant,  they added the top TE, Jermaine Gresham, and WR Jordan Shipley to handle the slot. Carson Palmer has a huge grin on his face right now and could be a fantasy football nightmare in 2010.

A few more teams we like are the Lions, Raiders and Rams. The problem for these teams though, and the Raiders in particular, is they rarely develop their young talent, so while the Draft may look like a home run on paper,  it rarely pans out when the pads go on.

This is one of those you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t type picks. Regardless of whether DT Suh or McCoy will end up being better overall players, the Rams are not in a position to pass on a potential Franchise QB, even if this is not likely to happen.

2. Detroit Lions - DT Ndamukong Suh

Suh is the most highly sought out DT in 20 years. And Jim Schwartz knows a thing or two about developing defensive tackles (see Albert Haynesworth)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy

The Bucs desperately need help along the defensive line and primarily in the middle. McCoy will begin to fill the void which has been there since Warren Sapp left town.

4. Washington Redskins – OT Russell Okung

Now, rumors are flying that the Redskins are taking S Eric Berry with this pick, however, the Skins offensive line was one of the worst in the league last year and they’ve got to protect their new investment (Donovan McNabb). Unless they move up for Bradford, expect an OT to be taken here.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Trent Williams

The Chiefs are another team with many needs but have a glaring weakness along the offensive line. Matt Cassel, overrated upon arrival in KC, never had a chance playing behind that line, and Todd Haley, will want to provide both he and new OC Charlie Weis with every chance to succeed.

6. Seattle Seahawks – S Eric Berry

Berry’s exceptionally talented and Carroll’s a defensive minded coach. While OT is a priority in Seattle, especially if they hope to keep the aging Matt Hasselback in one piece, the defense takes priority with their 1st pick in round one and the best DB comes off the board goes here.

7. Cleveland Browns – RB CJ Spiller

Spiller can thank Chris Johnson’s success for his meteoric rise into the top 10. They both possess world class speed, but Johnson’s ability to run between the tackles makes other teams dream of what Spiller will be able to do if he can do the same. The Browns are in desperate need of play makers on offense and Spiller fits that bill.

8. Oakland Raiders – OT Anthony Davis

Al Davis would probably like nothing more than to see Spiller slip to this pick, having apparently already given up on former 1st rd pick Darren McFadden, but that may pan out. If not, the Raiders need to protect for JaMarcus Russell, who holds onto the ball for an eternity, and Davis will be just the guy to do it.

9. Buffalo Bills – OT Bryan Bulaga

The run on offensive lineman to start the NFL Draft continues when the Bills make their pick. Buffalo’s offensive line needs to be completely re-tooled and Bulaga is the right pick to lay that foundation.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Derrick Morgan

The Jags were absolutely horrible last year getting pressure off the edge and set this move up with their trade of Quentin Groves to Oakland the other night. If Jacksonville is going to fix their defensive woes, this is a good place to start.

It’s like 2005.

First off, there’s really not a consensus No. 1.

DT Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska is considered the top talent, but it’s tough to grab a DT with the 1st pick because of the enormous amount of up front money which must be invested in that player.

And a defensive tackle doesn’t influence the game in the way that a QB does.

So most experts have the Rams taking Oklahoma’s QB Sam Bradford when the first name is called on Thursday.

This is a decision which will either catapult the Rams back to respectability or leave them buried at the bottom of the NFC West for years to come.

The upside for Bradford is he’s a big kid, with a good head on his shoulders, and can make all the throws an NFL QB needs to make.

The downside is he rarely faced top competition – the Big 12 is not known for its defenses – and has durability concerns, having missed the better part of ’09 with a damaged shoulder.

Defenders in the NFL are a lot bigger and faster than in college, so this must be weighing on the Rams’ minds.

St. Louis would probably love nothing better than to trade down, acquire additional picks, and grab one of the DTs at pick 2 or 3, but neither Detroit (Matt Stafford) nor Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman) need a QB, and others might not be willing to mortgage the future since Bradford’s not considered a “sure thing.”

The Skins could, as Donovan McNabb is not the long term answer, and by moving down to No. 4, the Rams would probably end up with one of the OTs (Russell Okung, Trent Williams or Bryan Baluga), who could team up with last year’s No. 2 pick, OT Jason Smith from Baylor.

They could then try and pick off Colt McCoy or another QB at the top of the 2nd round.

This would be the safer way to go, as it would solidify the offensive line – or defensive – if one of the tackles made it that far, but being “safe” doesn’t sell NFL tickets, and if Bradford does end up becoming a Franchise QB, a lot of guys will be out of jobs in the Rams front office.

Like it or not, St. Louis has no other choice (than Bradford), and they know it.

But we think the move is both calculated and smart.

Honestly, this was going to be the last year that the Eagles could get anything for the 11- year veteran. After 2010, his contract was up, and Philly, one of the most frugal organizations around, wasn’t going to be ponying up $20M+/year to keep an aging No. 5 around.

They also realized that he was never going to bring a Championship to the City of Brotherly Love.

So they moved him, and will insert Kevin Kolb in as the starter.

Another reason why I don’t think they were afraid to trade him within the division is because they know everything strength and weakness he has, and Sean McDermott will have an excellent game plan ready to stifle No. 5 when the teams face off.

Remember, Andy Reid has built McNabb into the player that he is over his entire NFL career.

Insight and knowledge of that kind can be leveraged to make good players look very ordinary.

At the end of the day, both teams did what they had to do and will be better off because of this gamble.

The Redskins needed to bring in a proven QB and the Eagles needed to unload McNabb while they could still get value for him.

It features the two top seeds from both conferences who each started out the season 13-0.

The Colts are here after two commanding post season victories over the Ravens and Jets. The impressive part about the AFC Championship Game is that after going down 17-6, Manning rallied his troops to outscore New York 24-0 over the final 32 minutes of the game.

The Saints on the other hand are fortunate to be in this position. After an overwhelming 45-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional Round, it took five turnovers, one being an infamous interception by Brett Favre at the end of regulation, before the Saints kicked the GW FG in OT to advance to the Super Bowl.

Since then, the only major news leading up to the game – from either team – is the status of DE Dwight Freeney. Mixed reports are coming out of the Colts camp but it appears unlikely that he’ll be able to play in this game due to a torn ligament in his ankle… and if he can, he’ll be far below 100%.

Onto our analysis of the Super Bowl:

When the Colts have the ball, they’ll use the same formula they’ve used all season and keep the game in Manning’s hands throughout.  While the Saints possess above average CB play, their defensive front’s ability to pressure the QB is usually dependent upon playing with a lead, something we don’t expect here, so look for Manning to have time to deliver the ball.

Reggie Wayne won’t have much trouble making his presence felt because the Siants don’t possess a CB of Darrelle Revis’s caliber. In fact, we like all of the skill players, from WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, to TE Dallas Clark, to have a great deal of success against this secondary.

DC Gregg Williams will most likely employ a defense designed to keep everything in front of it. He did this against the Vikings. But Peyton Manning will recognize this early and methodically pick apart the secondary en route to long drives which end in TDs.

And when Williams decides to bring the blitz, Manning is one of the – if not the – best in the league at recognizing it and will make New Orleans pay.

Once the passing game gets going, expect RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to see their share of touches. It’ll be primarily on stretch runs and draws but it’ll do just enough to keep New Orleans off balance so Peyton can execute play action passes.

When the Saints have the ball, Brees will be dealing. Like Manning, he’s extremely efficient and accurate when given time to pass. And if Freeney isn’t able to go, the Saints will then shift help over to DE Robert Mathis’s side of the field and Brees will have a nice pocket to locate the open receiver.

Look for WR Marques Colston to play a big role, as well as Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem, and any one of them could get behind the Colts secondary like Braylon Edwards did in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints will be able to use the play action effectively because RB Pierre Thomas should find a lot of success running against the Colts smaller D.

For the intermediate passing game, both TEs – Jeremy Shockey and Dave Thomas – will be used heavily throughout.

Out of the backfield, look for Pierre Thomas to be the primary ball handler.

As to Reggie Bush, he’ll have success both as a running back and receiver but we like him to make his presence felt more as a receiver in this one.

One thing to remember about this game is both teams are dome teams, and both rely heavily on their team speed. The Super Bowl is set to be played on the grass, so expect to see a different speed of the game than we’re used to seeing from them.

When Super Bowl XLIV is in the books, provided DE Dwight Freeney doesn’t play, look for the Saints, a 6 point underdog, to pull out the upset 31-28. (If Freeney can play and is effective, then we’ll side with the Colts by a TD, but all reports suggest he won’t be).

This will be a very even game offensively and defense is where it will be won.

Freeney’s loss will tip the scales in the Saints favor.

The Vikings, after stumbling down the stretch and backing in to the No.2 seed, dismantled the red hot Cowboys 34-3 in the Divisional Round.

The Saints, after losing their final three games of the regular season, came out roaring in the Divisional Round and demolished the Cardinals 45-14.

Onto this matchup:

When the Vikings have the ball, they’ll look to keep things balanced on offense. The Saints are especially effective when they can turn opposing offenses one dimensional, so look for Minnesota to mix RB Adrian Peterson in early and often.

New Orleans is vulnerable on the ground and we see No. 28 picking up big chunks of yards all day.

In order to limit Peterson’s effectiveness, New Orleans will be forced to bring a Safety into the box.

At that point, expect Favre to take to the air.

His primary targets will once again be WR Sindey Rice and Percy Harvin, both of whom should have strong games against the Saints secondary.

Harvin will be targeted primarily on short crossing routes and screens while Rice, whose developed into a top threat in 2009, will give the Saints smaller DBs fits all afternoon.

Coming off a three TD game vs. Dallas, look for at least one in this contest.

In the red zone, keep an eye on TE Visanthe Shiancoe. No. 4 loves to look his way near the goal line and the duo will hook up for a short score here.

When the Saints have the ball, Drew Brees will come out firing. When this team is hitting on all cylinders, as they were in their win over Arizona, he’s spreading the ball around to multiple receivers and picking up yards in bunches.

He’ll need to do so this week.

Facing the Vikings front four, look for New Orleans to incorporate a quick passing game to neutralize Frazier’s aggressive blitzing attack and keep Jared Allen and Co. off of Brees.

Using that attack, Brees should have a lot of success locating Colston, Henderson, Shockey and Bush on slants and quick outs. And once he gets into a rhythm, expect a few shots deep.

When they turn to the run, it’ll only be to eat up clock and wear down the Vikings D late in the game (provided they have a lead). The Vikings run defense is strong and New Orleans will find picking up yards on the ground hard to come by.

On top of that, RB Pierre Thomas, their best back, has been injured for much of the year and comes into this game with a leg injury.

While Reggie Bush enjoyed a breakout game on the ground vs. the Cards, it won’t happen this week. Instead, he’ll find most of his success as a receiver.

As the clock strikes 0:00, look for the Vikings, currently 3.5 point underdogs, to go into New Orleans and win 31-27. The one scenario which would doom the Vikings is to get into a situation where everyone knows Favre has to pass, i.e. get down by 10 points or more.

In those situations, he’s been known to make poor decisions and the Saints are one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league.

But we don’t see that happening.

We see a close game into the 4th quarter until the Vikings ground game and defense prove too much.

Last week, facing steep odds (7.5), they traveled cross country and wore down the heavily favored San Diego Chargers late with a physical running game and swarming defense.

The Indianapolis Colts road to this point has been far easier. After winning their initial 14 games, they created controversy by resting their starters and bypassing a chance at perfection in their Week 16 game against these very same Jets.

But they bounced back last week and smothered the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 in the Divisional Round.

The wonderful irony of this match-up is the Jets wouldn’t be in this situation had the Colts not given up in their Week 16 game.

Instead, they now find themselves facing this year’s Cinderella team which happens to feature the best running game and defense left in the Playoffs.

Onto the matchup:

When the Jets are on offense, not much is going to change from last week’s approach against the Chargers. They’re going to run the ball 65-70% of the time and try and keep Sanchez in manageable (3rd down) passing situations.

The Colts possess a much fiercer pass rush than the Chargers and New York doesn’t want to get into a situation where Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can pin their ears back and come after Sanchez.

So look for rookie RB Shonn Grenne, the new star in town, to see a lot of action, and for Thomas Jones to be primarily used in short yardage situations and near the goal line.

The Jets should have success against the smaller Colts defense and once they do, look for Sanchez to locate Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller on quick passes.

In the course of the game, they’ll also take at least two shots down the field and provided they’re having success on the ground, could land one for a long TD.

QB/KR Brad Smith will also get between 3-5 direct snaps and run the Wild Cat. Indianapolis had tremendous issues stopping it vs. the Dolphins in Week 2 and could have similar problems on Sunday.

When the Colts have the ball, their offense, as usual, will run through Peyton Manning.

The Jets feature the league’s No. 8 run defense and the Colts were dead last in that department in 2009.

But the Jets are also No. 1 against the pass, so therein lies the dilemma.

For the Colts to attack this defense, they’re going to need to locate players other than Reggie Wayne. CB Darrelle Revis will be on Wayne’s side of the field and limit his effectiveness.

This means a lot of balls will be going in the direction of Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. In order to beat the heavy pressure, expect a lot of slants and crossing routes.

One thing New York did last week was keep everything in front of their secondary. While this prevented the home run ball, it left huge holes open over the middle (of the field) which the Chargers exploited all afternoon.

The Colts will do the same.

And once the passing game gets going, they’ll then mix in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in order to keep the defense honest.

Look for the draw play to be used heavily. When facing an attacking defense, if the RB can get past the first wave of players, they could find themselves running for a while.

The run will also make the play-action a little more effective, which Peyton is the master at.

We expect at least two ror three shots down the field to Garcon off of it.

When this one is in the record books, look for the Colts to advance to the Super Bowl with a 17-13 win.

While it’s very hard to pick against the Jets with the way they are playing, and this could go either way, the only reason they were able to steal last week’s game is because San Diego missed a few FGs and failed to put New York away early on when they had the chance.

Expecting that to happen two weeks in a row is too tall an order for us.

Since then, they blew out the Bengals 37-0 in Week 17, and then headed into Cincinnati and manhandled them 24-14 in the Wild Card Round.

The Chargers finished the season 13-3, on an 11-game winning streak, and as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

In the process of their 11 game winning streak, which came after an embarrassing loss to the Steelers, they shored up their run defense and swept the NFC East.

They enter this game playing well in all three phases (offense/defense/special teams) and are looking to advance to the AFC Title Game.

Onto the analysis of this game:

When the Jets have the ball, expect OC Schottenheimer to continue running the ball with Thomas Jones and rookie Shonne Greene. While the Chargers have vastly improved their run defense over the course of the season, they can still be run on.

The Jets will use a lot of misdirection and counter run plays to take full advantage of their backfield’s ability.

Once the running game finds a little rhythm, they’ll begin attacking through the air with high percentage passes.

The one thing New York wants to avoid is putting Mark Sanchez in a lot of 3rd and longs. So slants and quick outs to Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller will be incorporated throughout.

If they find success here, Sanchez will take at least one, maybe two shots down the field to “no-hands” Edwards.

Regardless of whether he catches it or not, the effect will be positive: in the first instance, it could be a TD; in the second, it’ll keep San Diego from bringing their Safetys up to stop the run.

Also keep an eye on Brad Smith in the Wild Cat.

San Diego hasn’t seen the Wild Cat much this season and this could cause confusion defensively.

When San Diego has the ball, look for Rivers to direct the attack through the air.

The Chargers running game has been non-existent in 2009, outside of the 2 yard TD runs LdT consistently gets, and they’ll find little success going against the league’s No. 8 ranked run defense.

The Jets Linebackers and Defensive Lineman plug holes quickly (outside of last week vs. Benson) and will keep Tomlinson and Sproles from finding success.

To combat this, Rivers will throw early and often. The most dangerous weapon for the Chargers will be TE Antonio Gates. The Jets don’t have anyone who matches up well with him, so expect No. 85 to be targeted over 10 times on Sunday.

Vincent Jackson will be limited by Darrelle Revis but Malcom Floyd and Legedu Nanee should have success against the N0 2. and Nickel CB.

Also keep an eye on Darren Sproles out of the backfield who could be a big part of the short passing game.

Screens are the perfect antidote against blitzing teams and the Jets love to bring pressure.

When the clock winds down to 0:00, look for the Chargers, currently favored by 7.5 points, to advance to the AFC Championship with a 20-13 win.

If the Jets can jump on them early, they have a real shot of stealing this game. But if it’s close throughout, which is how we see it shaping up, then expect Rivers and Co. to be too much in the 4th quarter and pull out the close win at home.