Must Starts:

1. Tom Brady vs. Buffalo Bills

Brady returns to the gridiron to face the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night. And while the Bills possess a pretty solid young defense, in the end, it will not matter. Brady will come out slinging and easily eclipse the three hundred yard mark with at least three TDs. The Brady to Moss show should be in full effect under the bright lights and he tops this week’s QB fantasy rankings.

2. Drew Brees vs. Detroit Lions

Jim Schwartz was a heck of a defensive coordinator in his time with the Titans; Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to bring his players along to Detroit because while they should be improved, they’ll prove no match for Brees and the Saints explosive offense. Look for Brees to pick this secondary apart and to easily surpass the 300-yard mark with three TDs.

3. Phillip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders pass defense is actually one of their strong points, but star CB, Nnamdi Asomugha, is out with an injury although he says he’ll be back in time for week one. Regardless, the Chargers are a team that’s built through the air and look for Rivers to take advantage of Jackson and Gates, along with Sproles on dumps out of the backfield, to surpass 250 yards with at least three TDs.

4. Carson Palmer vs. Denver Broncos

Nothing has happened in the offseason to suggest the Broncos will be any better on defense in 2009. On the other hand, the Bengals possess a solid offense and now get Carson Palmer back, who missed most of last season with an injury.  The free agent signing of Laveranues Coles gives them a talented trio of receivers, and Chad Ochocinco is motivated once again. Look for a big day from Palmer with 250 yards and two to three TDs.

Sleepers:

1. Joe Flacco vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Although Baltimore’s expected to be more of a running offense this season, the Chiefs are weak defensively. And Flacco will have many opportunities to attack through the air and find his TE and receivers in favorable match-ups. A great fantasy sleeper if your regular starter has a poor match-up.

2. Trent Edwards vs. New England

With the addition of T.O., the Bills are expected to be more dangerous on offense, and the Patriots still need to show that the offseason upgrades to the secondary will pan out. The Bills should also be playing from behind so expect a lot of passing opportunities for Edwards.

Others We Like:

Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco 49ers

Playing at home and coming off the Super Bowl appearance, the Cardinals should be pretty amped up. And the Niners don’t possess a formidable pass rush which means that Warner will have time to locate his outstanding receiving targets (Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston) for what should be a big day through the air.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago Bears

The Aaron Rodgers show is in full effect this season and all of the pieces are in place for a very potent offense. The Bears secondary was its weak link last year and we like for Green Bay to attack this unit heavily. Look for 250 yards and two TDs.

Brett Favre vs. Cleveland Browns

Although Favre isn’t fully acclimated to his new offense in Minnesota, Cleveland doesn’t present much of a defensive challenge on opening day. When not handing the ball off to superstar running back Adrian Peterson, look for Favre to locate – and hit – his weapons (Berrian, Harvin, Schiancoe) for a nice afternoon. ]]> http://www.profootball101.com/2009/09/07/2009-fantasy-rankings-week-1-qbs/feed/ 0 http://www.profootball101.com/2009/05/15/who-will-be-the-top-fantasy-qb-in-2009/ http://www.profootball101.com/2009/05/15/who-will-be-the-top-fantasy-qb-in-2009/#comments Fri, 15 May 2009 13:43:15 +0000 admin http://www.profootball101.org/?p=3420 With the NFL Draft over and done with, and team’s rosters for the most part set, today we look at which of the big three QBs—Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, will have the best fantasy season in 2009.

Now injuries are the one X factor, as seen last year when Tom Brady, fresh off his MVP and 50 TD season, went down in the second quarter of week one to leave fantasy owners across the land depressed that had chosen him in the top five picks of the draft.

But if all three go through the entire season and escape significant injury, who will come out on top?

Look for Drew Brees to be the top fantasy QB, followed by Brady and Manning. In that order.

Brees last year was lights out. His team stunk, but he was putting up numbers like our fed is printing money—out of control. In fact, if not for an errant pass on his last attempt of the season, he would have eclipsed Marino’s single season passing mark (5,084). He also finished with 34 TDs.

In 2009, he should be just as dangerous. Although he probably won’t hit the 5,000 yard mark,  in large part because the defense should be improved, meaning games will be closer, he should still hit around 4,200-4,500 yards and toss between 34-40 TDs.

His skill players are dangerous: Marques Colston is a year further along in his development; Reggie Bush should be more dangerous out of the backfield; Jeremy Shockey could regain his earlier form and become a solid outlet for Brees in the short game, and Robert Meachem could become a prominent deep threat which is how New Orleans envisioned him when they took him in the first round in 2007.

Tom Brady should rebound nicely as well, but due to a recovering ACL, look for Belichick to rely more heavily on the run as he’ll want to limit Brady’s exposure as much as possible. And that’s one of the reasons that the Patriots brought in Fred Taylor to complement Laurence Maroney.

But they’ve still got Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and with the addition of Joey Galloway, who’ll probably be used exclusively on the deep ball, the opportunity will once again be there for between 3,700-4,000 yards and  30-36 TDs.

The reason why he won’t come close to 50 again, is the bitter taste of karma is still firmly entrenched in Belichick’s mouth, so there will be no more throwing touchdowns when up by 40 points in the third quarter this year.

And rounding out the three, long time fantasy mainstay, Peyton Manning.

Manning is still one of the top QBs in the league, but his star power, especially from a fantasy standpoint, is diminishing. His 49TDs back in 2005 seems like eons ago, and with the drafting of RB Donald Brown in this year’s first round, to go with Joseph Addai, it appears like the Colts plan to run the ball more frequently in 2009.

And the thinking behind running the ball more is they want to keep their defense fresh and on the sidelines as much as possible.

But that’s not to say that his numbers will fall off a cliff.

Even though Marvin Harrison is gone, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez are still there, and both backs can catch the ball out of the backfield.

So expect Manning to hit right around the 4,000-yard mark, with between 26-30 TDs.

Booms

1. Phillip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos

This is the revenge game. After Hochuli’s infamous ruling allowed the Broncos to beat San Diego 39-38 in Week Two of the season, San Diego is ready to knock out their division rivals and wrap up the AFC West at an 8-8 record. I know, not impressive. But here’s what is impressive: Rivers’ stats over the past month. He’s been lighting it up, and he’ll do the same on Sunday Night. Strong fantasy play.

2. Michael Turner vs. St. Louis Rams

Conventional wisdom says that the Falcons should have a large lead by halftime. With that being the case, look for Atlanta to feed Turner the ball early and often. The big bruiser should eclipse the hundred-yard mark, and should find the end zone.

3. Steve Smith vs. New Orleans Saints

We expect Drew Brees to attempt to reach Dan Marino’s single season passing record, and if that happens, the Panthers will need to pass to keep up. Very few CBs match up well with Smith in football, and certainly none on New Orleans. Look for Smith to have a monster game on Sunday in a must-win for Carolina.

Busts

1. Brett Favre vs. Miami Dolphins

Favre and the Jets are imploding at the wrong time. After sprinting out to an 8-3 record and a commanding first place lead in the AFC East, last week’s loss, in which Favre was terrible, all but assured that they’ll be home for the playoffs. Look for the Dolphins to be very opportunistic in what could be unfavorable weather conditions and force Favre into a few turnovers.

2. Marshawn Lynch vs. New England Patriots

Lynch is a bit banged up, and the Patriots are in a must-win situation—not a good formula for a successful afternoon by Marshawn. The Pats also know that stopping the ground game is the key to beating Buffalo, so look for a poor fantasy effort on Sunday from Lynch.

3. Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia Eagles

T.O. torched Philly last time the two teams met, but it was all in the first half. After that, Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jim Johnson made an adjustment that took Owens out of the game. We like him to continue with that game plan in this one and force Romo to look elsewhere.

Must Start:

1. Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Win and they’re in. And that’s exactly what they will do with their suffocating defense. We don’t think the Jags will want any business with the Ravens’ physical nature in the finale, so look for a dominant fantasy defensive effort by Lewis and Co.

2. Atlanta Falcons vs. St. Louis Rams. The Falcons are already in (the playoffs), but with a win, and a Panthers loss, they can advance all the way to the No. 2 seed. Look for Abraham and Co. to make Bulger’s life miserable on Sunday and force sacks and turnovers in the process.

3. Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions. Let’s see, the Lions only managed seven points against the Saints. And if the Saints had a defense, they’d be in the playoffs. So that output speaks volumes…We see the Packers, in a game that’s quite meaningless, continuing that trend and shutting down the Lions to put them, and their season out of its misery.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders. The Bucs have had a tough three game stretch, losing every game and putting themselves into a situation where they’ll need help to make the post-season. But a win is in their control, and we think it’ll come quite easily against Gruden’s former crew. Look for a solid fantasy performance on Sunday.

Sleepers:

1. San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins. The Skins have little to play for as they’re not going to the post season and HC Jim Zorn has already been assured that he’ll be brought back in ’09. The Niners on the other hand, are still playing for interim HC Mike Singletary’s job and their own. Look for a solid effort in their home finale and a low scoring game by the Bay.

2. Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears. The Texans had a very poor showing in Oakland in Week 16 but still have a chance to end up with a .500 season, a first for the franchise. And the Bears’ offense isn’t its strong point. Look for Mario Williams and Co. to harass Orton when he drops back and force him into a few turnovers.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns. Even the Steelers, who will probably be resting their starters, have a great shot at keeping the Dorsey-led Browns out of the end zone on Sunday. The Browns have just become an embarrassment to themselves and the NFL in ’08.

2. New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills. The only way New England can make the playoffs is with a win and some help. And they’ll get it in impressive fashion (offensively and defensively) as Belichick usually buries his division rival.

3. Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts. Even though both teams will be playing their back-ups for most of this game, once Manning is removed for Sorgi, it’s all over. The Titans, who have great defensive depth, will be all over him and force him into sacks and turnovers.

Must-Starts

1. Tony Gonzalez vs. Cincinnati Bengals.

Both teams have nothing to play for except pride and numbers. And we like the Thigpen to Gonzalez combo to put up nice ones (numbers) in this one. Top fantasy TE this week.

2. Jason Witten vs. Philadelphia Eagles.

This is a game of desperation for Dallas, and you know that Romo will look for his safety outlet—Witten—plenty in this one. There are only a few DBs and no LBs that can cover him and the mismatches he presents are daunting for a defensive coordinator. Look for a big fantasy effort in this one.

3. Antonio Gates vs. Denver Broncos.

Gates came to life last week catching a few TDs in the win over Tampa Bay, and we see that trend continuing this Sunday when they take on the Broncos. Similar to Witten, Gates’ hands are excellent and he creates mismatches for any defense he plays. Look for another visit to the end zone on Sunday.

4. John Carlson vs. Arizona Cardinals. Carlson was a second round steal for the Seahawks this season. He has really come on of late. One team that hasn’t is Arizona who appears to be sleepwalking their way into the playoffs. Look for another big football game out of the young TE in the finale.

Sleepers

1. Visanthe Shiancoe vs. New York Giants.

We don’t see the Giants taking many chances on their key starters in this one and Minnesota is playing for their playoff lives. So look for the Jackson to Shiancoe combo to be in full effect on Sunday.

2. Greg Olsen vs. Houston Texans.

Without any real weapons on the outside, Orton has to look to the TEs more in this offense to move the ball through the air, and when he does, we like him to target Olsen for about five passes and possibly a red zone score.

Others with Favorable Matchups

1. Tony Scheffler vs. San Diego Chargers.

The Chargers have been anything but formidable on defense this year, and Scheffler is great at finding room to work with. Look for Cutler to target Scheffler on short to medium range passes and the TE should be able to rack up quite a few catches and yards in the process.

2. Anthony Fasano vs. New York Jets.

The Jets have been vulnerable to the TE (Carlson caught a TD last week) this season because their strong point is on the outside, at the CB position. So look for Pennington to locate Fasano in his short passing game and then again near the end zone.

3. Owen Daniels vs. Chicago Bears.

If the Bears employ the same strategy as Oakland did—doubling Andre Johnson, then look for Schaub to turn to his second read and hit Daniel for a lot of passes and yards. And when they get near the end zone, look for Daniels to have his number called a few times.

Must Starts:

1. Randy Moss vs. Buffalo Bills. This is a must win for New England, so look for them to inflict some pain. Does anyone remember Moss’ game last year in Buffalo? Four TDs in the first half alone. Look for another stellar fantasy output in this one as well.

2. Calvin Johnson vs. Green Bay Packers. The conditions could be frigid, but look for Johnson to continue his fantasy dominance. He’s already scored 10 TDs for the worst team in the modern era – perhaps worse than the Bucs in ’76. And he’ll have a chance to add to that total playing against a secondary that can be beaten.

3. Greg Jennings vs. Detroit Lions. On the other side of that coin, look for Jennings to put an end to a fine season. One where he officially became an elite receiver. In last Sunday’s game vs. New Orleans, the Saints scored TDs on six consecutive drive. The Packers will light it up in Week 17 and complete the Lions’ amazing season.

4. Roddy White vs. St. Louis Rams. The Falcons can win the No. 2 seed with a big win on Sunday, and we see White on the receiving end of some big plays to ensure that happens. The Rams have no one that can match White’s big play ability.

Sleepers:

1. Muhsin Muhammed vs. New Orleans Saints. This is a huge game for the Panthers in that a win means a first round bye. And since we expect New Orleans to double Steve Smith, look for Muhammed to be the beneficiary of some extra balls thrown his way.

2. Eddie Royal vs. San Diego Chargers. Royal has put up solid numbers of late because of the attention that is being given to Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Look for that to continue on Sunday.

Others with favorable matchups:

1. Andre Johnson vs. Chicago Bears. If the Bears put three guys on him, his numbers will be down. We’re betting that they don’t, and the result is that he will smoke this secondary.

2. Vincent Jackson vs. Denver Broncos. Champ Bailey is back for this critical week 17 matchup, but we still like Jackson. He has come on strong this season, and will have a big fantasy day.

3. Brandon Marshall vs. San Diego Chargers. Do you remember the last time these two teams met? Marshall had 18 catches for 166 and one TD. He torched Cromartie all day long. We don’t think it’ll be this bad, this time, but Marshall will get his due against the Bolts. ]]> http://www.profootball101.com/2008/12/24/week-17-wr-fantasy-rankings/feed/ 0 http://www.profootball101.com/2008/12/24/week-17-rb-fantasy-rankings/ http://www.profootball101.com/2008/12/24/week-17-rb-fantasy-rankings/#comments Wed, 24 Dec 2008 16:12:29 +0000 profootball101 http://profootball101.org/?p=2189 Must Starts

1. Michael Turner vs. St. Louis Rams

The Falcons know that with a win over the Rams and a Panthers loss to New Orleans, they’re the No. 2 seed in the NFC and will have a first round bye. That’s a lot of incentive. To get them there, look for Turner to get the ball from 25-30 times and easily eclipse the 100-yard mark on Sunday. Top fantasy play.

2. LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver Broncos

Tomlinson looked re-energized in last weekend’s victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and now he gets a chance to help his team into the playoffs. Considering that they’re 7-8, it’s not a testament to the quality of the league, but this should be a competitive game that Tomlinson flourishes in. Denver’s run defense is bad.

3. DeAngelo Williams vs. New Orleans

The fantasy superstar of ’08 will be at it again on Sunday vs. the Saints. DeAngelo singlehandedly won our league and went gangbusters over the last eight games of the season. Look for another explosion as the Panthers look to wrap up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

4. Steve Slaton vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have been vulnerable all season to the run, and the Texans have found their back of the future in Slaton. Look for him to cap off a solid rookie campaign with a big outing in Week 17.

Sleepers

1. Tashard Choice vs. Philadelphia Eagles

We’re still not convinced that Barber’s toe is healed, and Dallas will need to run the ball to keep the Eagles defense honest. Look for Choice to find room to work with and put out a solid fantasy stat line.

2. Cedric Benson vs. Kansas City Chiefs

In a pretty shocking story, Cedric Benson might have resurrected his career in Cincinnati of all places. He’s run quite well of late—look for that to continue in the finale.

Others with favorable matchups

1. Adrian Peterson vs. New York Giants

While Tom Coughlin says he’ll play his starters, conventional wisdom says you’ll only see them for a quarter or so. We think that’s how it’ll turn out. Look for Peterson to run roughshod over the Giants’ backups and guide his Vikings into the playoffs.

2. Ronnie Brown vs. New York Jets

The Dolphins are one win away from the most improbable playoff berth in NFL history. The turnaround will be talked about for years. Look for Brown’s legs to be a big reason why it is. After the Bills and Seahawks each just got done torching the Jets on the ground, we see no reason why it won’t happen again on Sunday.

3. Le’Ron McClain vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Win and they’re (Balt) in. So look for the big man to be rumbling on Sunday and take a few goal line handoffs in for scores.

Must Starts:

1. Matt Cassel vs. Buffalo Bills. The Patriots have everything to play and no guarantees they’ll make the playoffs when the day is said and done. If the Dolphins beat the Jets, Miami moves on and New England stays home, so look for an ultra impressive performance from the Patriots, and Cassel in particular. Top fantasy play.

2. Phillip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos. The Chargers can’t wait to repay the Broncos for the win they were cheated out of in week two, thanks to a horrible call by Ed Hochuli. Look for Rivers to remain hot and continue his air assault on Denver.

3. Drew Brees vs. Carolina Panthers. The Saints have only one thing to play for: Brees’ attempt to break Dan Marino’s single season record. And look for him to give it his best shot when the Panthers come to New Orleans this weekend.

4. Aaron Rodgers vs. Detroit Lions. The Lions are this close to perfection, and the entire NFL is ready to celebrate champagne with them. And to make sure they get there, 0-16, Rodgers and his receivers are going to light up this defense on the way to a blow-out.

Sleepers:

1. Matt Schaub vs. Chicago Bears. The Bears can be pass on as Rodgers and his Packers did Monday Night, and it’s important to Houston to end with a winning season. Schaub will come up big on Sunday.

2. Matt Ryan vs. St. Louis Rams. Ryan has a chance, with a Panthers loss, to lead his team to the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first round bye. Look for he and his receivers—White and Jenkins—to enjoy a lot of success through the air.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Jay Cutler vs. San Diego Chargers. The only way Denver can win this football game is by throwing the ball. They have no running game left. Look for Cutler to link up with his talented receiving duo for a big day through the air.

2. Jeff Garcia vs. Oakland Raiders. The Bucs desperately need to win in order to have a chance at the playoffs. Look for Garcia to get them the “W” through the air, and to Antonio Bryant in particular.

3. Chad Pennington vs. New York Jets. How classic is it Pennington has a chance to beat his former team to advance to the playoffs? We think it’s great. Look for a big game from Chad on Sunday against a vulnerable Jets’ secondary.

Booms

1. QB Drew Brees vs. Detroit Lions. It is our belief that, with the season lost for the Saints, Drew Brees will still try and surpass Dan Marino’s all-time NFL passing yardage in a season mark of 5,048.

He’s still a little over 700 yards away. And since we’ve all seen 350-400 yard games out of him this season, look for another when they face the lowly Lions.

2. RB Steve Slaton vs. Oakland Raiders. Holes can be found in the interior of the Raiders’ defense that are large enough to drive a truck though. All of Oakland’s offseason money went to the secondary; after watching them play the run, perhaps it should’ve went to the defensive line.

Slaton is on fire of late—averaging over 20 carries per game and eclipsing the 100 yard mark in his last three starts. After Sunday, it’ll be four.

3. WR Calvin Johnson vs. New Orleans Saints. What Johnson has done this year might be unprecedented. Playing with zero talent around him, he is single-handedly beating double and triple coverage and has scored 10 TDs on the season.

On Sunday, in what should be a high-scoring affair, look for TD No. 11 to come and a lot of yards to go with it.

Busts

1. Tony Romo vs. Baltimore Ravens. Romo is still nursing a back injury which he received on a sack in the Giants game, and in come the angry Ravens after a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers.

With no threat of a running game to contend with, look for the Ravens to apply consistent pressure on Romo and for Ed Reed and the secondary to be opportunistic on a few errant throws.

2. Michael Turner vs. Minnesota Vikings. Even without one-half of the Williams’ twins (Pat is out for two to six weeks with an injury), the Vikings are still a beast to run against. The front seven is excellent at shedding blocks and getting a push against the offensive line, and that’s why we think Atlanta will come out attacking through the air.

3. Derrick Mason vs. Dallas Cowboys. Mason has quietly become Joe Flacco’s favorite passing target, but on Saturday, we advise you to look elsewhere. A big reason for the resurgence in the Cowboys’ defense is the play of now healthy Terence Newman.

The guy is a stud. Two weeks ago, he limited Hines Ward to one catch and two yards and last week he blanketed Giants’ receiver Domenik Hixon. He’ll do the same to Mason this week.

Must Starts:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans

If Pittsburgh makes the Titans one dimensional, which is more than likely, look for this pass rush to be relentless towards Collins. Pittsburgh brings in its league-leading defense against the run, so don’t expect much from the White/Johnson combo. When this happens, look for the sacks and turnovers to pile up. Top fantasy play of the week.

2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins

Is there any team in a worse (offensive) slump right now than the Washington Redskins? After their showing in Cincinnati, I don’t think so. Maybe the Giants. The Eagles come to town trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, and in order for that to happen, they’ll need their defense to step up once again, as they have the past two weeks. That shouldn’t be a problem.

3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts are going for a playoff berth while the Jags are playing out the season. And if safety Bob Sanders is back for this game, as reports say he will be, it’ll add another dimension the Colts’ defense has been missing: a playmaker in the secondary. Look for Indy to be all over Garrard and Co., racking up a few sacks and interceptions in the process.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Diego Chargers

Both teams are desperate for wins to keep their respective playoff hopes alive, but San Diego is making the cross country trip that has been deadly to them all year. In their past two trips to the East Coast—Miami and Buffalo—the Chargers have forgotten to show up. Look for the Bucs to rally around the home crowd and get after Rivers while stopping Tomlinson. The result will be a solid fantasy stat line from Tampa.

Sleepers:

1. Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders

The Russell-led Raiders have been pretty anemic all year, and the Texans are actually playing quite well on defense right now. Look for more of the same as defensive end Marion Williams and Co. make Russell’s life miserable.

2. San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams

The Niners have been a completely different team since Mike Nolan and his nonsensical coaching philosophy left the house. Under Mike Singletary, the defensive unit has developed an identity, and they’re playing with more of a purpose. Led by stud LB Patrick Willis, look for this defense to make stopping Jackson a priority, while their blitzing package gets after Bulger.

Others with favorable matchups:

1. Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys offense is very explosive, but against better defenses they can be contained (see Pittsburgh game two weeks ago). Look for Ray Lewis and Co. to keep the running game in check and for Ed Reed to be a ball hawk in the secondary.

2. New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is a very good offense—when the team’s at home. On the road, the Cardinals become quite average. Look for Belichick to put together a few schemes that force Warner into sacks and turnovers.

3. New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers

The Giants are finally in their first must-win game of the season, and it’s only a must-win if Minnesota beats Atlanta earlier in the day. In what should be a cold night at the Meadowlands, look for this NY defense to get back to stopping the running game (won’t be easy) and applying pressure to the QB.