New Orleans Saints (+5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
With a healthy DE Dwight Freeney, the point spread would favor the Colts by 7 and justifiably so. However, odds are that if he plays, which is unlikely, it’ll only be in obvious passing situations.
Without Freeney, look for this game to feature a lot of offense on both sides of the ball. Brees and Manning should be able to match each other score for score but we give the overall edge to the Saints now because of their ability to run the ball.
RB Pierre Thomas will have a nice day on the ground and his ability to pick up yards – and 1st downs – will keep the play-action pass for Brees effective all game long and Manning on the sidelines for long periods of time.
And DC Gregg Williams, with two weeks to prepare and a healthier defensive roster of the two, will create enough pressure (for Manning) that his opportunistic defense makes one game changing play that impacts the final outcome.
Money Line
The ramifications of an inactive – and even unhealthy – DE Dwight Freeney also make the Saints an excellent money line bet (+180).
Let’s not forget that for as impressive as Manning was over the last 32 minutes of the AFC Championship Game, it was the defense which pitched the 2nd half shut out, and Freeney’s ability to disrupt the passer’s rhythm and take attention away from the other defensive lineman/blitzing LBers was a big reason why.
The defense also shut out the Ravens over the final three quarters of their Divisional Round Playoff win after Baltimore kicked a FG on its opening drive.
Which is why we like the Saints to pull off the upset 31-28.
