In Week 10, we hit on three of our top four bets against the point spread and only missed the money line when Peyton Manning hooked up with Reggie Wayne on the last second TD.
For Week 11
Best Bets
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will be down WR Dwayne Bowe this week after he was suspended for substance abuse by the league. This is a big blow to their offense and comes just a week after the franchise dumped RB Larry Johnson thus leaving the unit seriously thin from an experience standpoint.
The Steelers might be playing without S Troy Polamalu, but against KC, it won’t matter. Look for Pittsburgh, coming off a disappointing loss to the Bengals last week, to dominate Cassel and Co. defensively, and for their offense to have their way with the Chiefs defense all afternoon.
Next In Line
2. New England Patriots (-10.5) vs. New York Jets
The Jets are in a tail spin after their 3-0 start and have now lost four of five. They were very vocal before and after their victory over New England in Week Three and you can bet Bill Belichick hasn’t forgetten this. Expect Rex Ryan and Co. to find a hostile opponent awaiting them at Foxboro and for Brady and Co. to run up the score in a blowout.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are 9-0 but have played poorly in their last few victories. The injuries on defensive are clearly taking their toll. Rookie QB Josh Freeman has ignited a lifeless Bucs team and came within seconds from being 2 for 2 on his young career with a last second loss to the Dolphins. Expect another close contest here.
4. Tennessee Titans (+4.5) vs. Houston Texans
See Money Line Analysis
New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Giants are on a four game losing streak and coming off a much needed bye week. They were able to heal up some injuries (CB Aaron Ross, DT Chris Canty, LB Michael Boley) and had some coaching issues to correct. Atlanta will play this one without star RB Michael Turner and this changes the entire dynamic of their offense. Without the threat of a running game, Ryan’s far less effective. Look for New York to get back in the win column with a TD victory in the Meadowlands.
Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
The Bengals are coming off an emotional win at Pittsburgh and now sit alone atop the AFC North. While the potential for a letdown against the lowly Raiders exists, we think Marvin Lewis will have his team ready to compete in Oakland and Palmer and Benson will guide the Bengals to a commanding win.
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are 4-0 on the road and will make it 5-0 here. However, the Rams are playing much better for Steve Spagnuolo – especially defensively – and came extremely close to handing New Orleans its first loss of the season in Week 10. Look for the Rams to rely heavily on Steven Jackson and keep the score close throughout the contest.
Money Line
Tennessee Titans (+190) vs. Houston Texans
The Titans come into this game red hot on the three game winning streak. Ever since Vince Young regained the starting QB position after the bye week, the defense has played better and Chris Johnson improved upon his hot start.
The Texans on the other hand are coming off a tough last second loss to the Colts two weeks ago and had a bye week in Week 10 to adjust its offense approach with TE Owen Daniels out for the year (ACL).
Offensively, look for Tennessee to feed the ball to Chris Johnson – on the ground and out of the backfield – and for the second-year star to pick up yards at will on the Texans defense. In their earlier meeting this season, he amassed nearly 300 total yards and 3TDs. He’ll dominate in this one too. Vince Young will be called upon to make plays wit his legs and the short, safe passes to keep the chains moving.
Defensively, Jeff Fisher will focus his attention on WR Andre Johnson and try and take him out of the plan. If he can create a scenario where the only players who can beat him are Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones in the passing game, he’ll feel good about his chances. On the ground, aside from Ryan Moats stellar performance against the Bills (129 yards, 2TD), there hasn’t been much productivity out of the unit and RB Steve Slaton seems to have fallen out of favor with this coaching staff.
In the end, expect the Titans to win their 4th game in a row and RB Chris Johnson to be the difference maker.
Pro Football 101 » 2009 NFL Picks - Week 12
November 25th, 2009 at 14:26
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[...] week and have won over 60% of our picks against the point spread in 2009. We also hit our eighth money line bet of the [...]