Here’s our Week Five picks:
Best Bets
1. Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Two touchdowns is always a lot to give, but some games warrant it. This is one of them. The Bucs have played very poorly in 2009 and are heading into Philly, a tough place to play. The Eagles, coming off their bye week, are getting their two most celebrated players back: QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook. Expect an easy win, somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-7, for our best bet of the week.
Next In Line
2. Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals near letdown vs. the Browns was most likely the result of a team looking forward. They’re now 3-1 and have shown heart and character in all their wins. Baltimore is solid as well, but 8.5 points is too much for teams that know each other so well. The Ravens can be hurt through the air and we like for Palmer and Co. to attack this weakness.
3. New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos
We’re all waiting for the surprising 4-0 Broncos to come back to earth. It happens this week. While the Patriots still have plenty of issues of their own, the offense is beginning to click, and defensively, they began to open up the playbook last Sunday. Expect Belichick, who knows Josh McDaniels inside out, to confuse Kyle Orton, and for the Patriots to win this game by over a TD.
4. Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
See Money Line analysis
Others We Like
St. Louis Rams (+10) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Rams could not be coming off a more disappointing showing than last week’s 35-o loss to the 49ers. The Vikings on the other hand are coming off an emotional 30-23 win over the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night. So why are we going with the Rams? because most teams experience a letdown after such an emotional win the week before. The Rams are also playing at home.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
A lot of guys, head coach included, will be playing for jobs on Sunday, so expect a desperate Bills team to show up against the Browns. And Cleveland is horrible on the road. Look for Buffalo to pick up an easy win in Orchard Park by at least a TD.
Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Chiefs, while bad, are a young team that’s learning to play together. The Cowboys on the other hand are still searching for an identity. While the Cowboys should win this game, expect the Chiefs to pick up points in garbage time (two 4th quarter TDs vs. Giants last week) and cover the point spread.
Money Line
Atlanta Falcons (+120) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons are 2-1 and coming off a bye week. They’ve had an opportunity to rest their players and get better as a whole. The Niners are 3-1 and playing well, especially defensively, where MLB Patrick Willis has become a dominating force. So this should be a great test for both teams.
Offensively, we like the Falcons to pound the rock with Michael Turner. While running the ball won’t come easy, it will force the Niners to commit an extra man into the box. This will open up the play action pass for Matt Ryan to locate Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. White’s still looking for his first breakout game of the season and we think it comes this week.
Defensively, the Falcons won’t need to key on one particular area. While Glen Coffee is a nice looking rookie, he won’t command extra attention. They’ll most likely shift coverage in Vernon Davis’s direction as he’s come on of late, but aside from that, they can play man in the secondary against the Niners receivers.
Expect John Abraham and Co. to get after Shaun Hill on Sunday and force him into a few mistakes. Hill’s release is slow, as can be his decision making and this all bodes well for Atlanta.
While the final score will be close, Matt Ryan will prove the difference in a 21-17 win.
2009 Record Against the Point Spread
Overall – 68%
Best Bets 1-3
Next In Line 11-1
Others We Like 6-6
Money Line 4-0
